Tribal Cap, Daily Cash & Futures Technicals, 5/31/19

Pls see the attached PDF for today's pivot & ATR targets plus today's stats (we have rolled to Sept or U9 contracts)

* WOW - now Mexico tariffs!!! Cash UST 2s, 3s, 5s below 2%. In fact, swap rate from 3s through 6s are also sub 2%. The Euro$ complex is sub 2% from Mar 20 (EDH0) through June 23 (EDM3). UST futures contracts clearly made new contract highs overnight. The lowest UST yield overnight was in 3s at 1.928%. The bond market is pricing in a lot of fear and the bulls are firmly in control! Here are today's UST session yields:

* Eminis are lower by 32.5 handles right now at 2758.00 on heavy volume for this time of day, 403k contracts. 'IF' this holds, SPX cash will have a gap down open below its 200 day sma at 2775.84. Yes, there is fear in the risk asset markets but I don't  think its anything like the UST markets. In terms of next near term support for SPX cash - 2722 is the 38.2% Fib from the Dec 18 low to 5/1/19 high. However, the chart below highlights a fairly classic 'head & shoulders' reversal pattern. That pattern's neckline  signal was in the 2809 zone (which was also the 23.6% Fib) and projects ~145 handles lower or 2664 ish. And that is in fairly close proximity to the 50% Fib at 2650. The key for US equities is simple, the bears are in control.

* Eminis are lower by 32.5 handles right now at 2758.00 on heavy volume for this time of day, 403k contracts. 'IF' this holds, SPX cash will have a gap down open below its 200 day sma at 2775.84. Yes, there is fear in the risk asset markets but I don't think its anything like the UST markets. In terms of next near term support for SPX cash - 2722 is the 38.2% Fib from the Dec 18 low to 5/1/19 high. However, the chart below highlights a fairly classic 'head & shoulders' reversal pattern. That pattern's neckline signal was in the 2809 zone (which was also the 23.6% Fib) and projects ~145 handles lower or 2664 ish. And that is in fairly close proximity to the 50% Fib at 2650. The key for US equities is simple, the bears are in control.

* As this is month-end, here are some MTD returns as of this morning:  - eminis, -6.45%  - WNM9 (ultra long bond contracts), +6.18%  - Long bond yields have rallied 32.55bpts  - WTI (CL1), -13.3%  - EDH1 (lowest yielding Euro$, Mar 21), has rallied 40.5bpts  Ian C. Burdette, CFA, CMT Senior Managing Director

* As this is month-end, here are some MTD returns as of this morning:

- eminis, -6.45%

- WNM9 (ultra long bond contracts), +6.18%

- Long bond yields have rallied 32.55bpts

- WTI (CL1), -13.3%

- EDH1 (lowest yielding Euro$, Mar 21), has rallied 40.5bpts

Ian C. Burdette, CFA, CMT
Senior Managing Director

MBE