Daily Cash & Futures Technicals, 2/25/19, Ian C. Burdette, CFA, CMT
Please see attached PDF for today's pivot & ATR targets plus session stats: here.
* this is getting old saying but... Absolute 'risk ripper!' China CSI 300 up almost 6% on the session w/ an opening gap and a close near the session highs:
* Eminis are holding above the 2800 level but on uninspiring volume (142k so far) and near session highs.
Weekly on SPX cash - horizontal line is 2800, close to $3 trillion in mkt cap gain since 1/3rd ytd low:
* supply in 2s, 5s and 7s this week plus normal bill schedule. Note supply is condensed given the calendar. We get $40bln 2s and $39bln 6mos at 11:30am and $41bln 5s and $48bln 3mos at 1pm. Tomorrow, we get $26bln 1yrs at 11:30 and $32bln 7s at 1pm.
5yr UST rate weekly, if we are forming a 'pennant,' rates could go a LOT lower. The 'pennant' would project 1.90% on cash 5s. I'm not a believer in that but that's what the chart would theoretically project:
* Swap spreads continue to absolutely ramp tighter - levels not seen since early 2016. Here are 2yr spreads:
* Clearly a LOT of other things going on this week that I have highlighted in the weekly - Fed speak, debt ceiling etc..
Ian C. Burdette, CFA, CMT
Senior Managing Director