Daily Cash & Futures Technicals, 2/22/19, Ian C. Burdette, CFA, CMT

See the 2/22/19 Daily Cash & Futures Technicals report: here.

* an absolute sea of 'green' for global equity indexes. Not even one major global equity index future in the red this morning on {weif <go>}. In cash, the Nikkei did end marginally lower at -0.18% vs the China CSI 300 up 2.25%. The MSCI World Index (ticker {MXWO Index <go>} ) was still up 12.10% at yesterday's close from the 1/3rd ytd low. Here in the US, eminis are up 12 handles at 2786.25 vs yesterday's session lows of 2764.25.

* USTs had a reversal day yesterday w/ the bond leading the way lower w/ 30yr TIP supply. On the curve, 5s/bonds made a cycle low on 7/12/18 at 19.76bpts and closed yesterday at 52.69bpts. USH9 contracts are back at the familiar 146-00 level. This contract has made a 148-27 high (2.8863% on cash bonds) and a YTD low of 144-09 (3.1083% on cash bonds). Looking at the entire futures stack, we seem to be trading in a consolidation range. This years px action in bonds vs risk has been 'interesting' for sure - risk ripping higher but bonds trading in a fairly defined/tight range. My suspicion is that the current state is temporary/transitory and at some point there will be a turbulent regime/phase shift from this (non) correlation behavior.

* the H9/M9 roll is ramping up.

* 36 trading day closes so far in 2019. Eminis have had only 11 down days so far YTD. Down day avg volume = 1.501mm contracts vs up day avg volume = 1.399mm. Moving to cash SPX, the 2800 level is pretty technical level - it acted as support in July/Aug in 2018 but then significant resistance in Oct, Nov and Dec.. We are back w/in 1% of that zone. A break (on good volume) could mean still more higher prices; however, stops should be dynamic!

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